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The new Iran Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 18.97% of Middle Eastand Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2012. BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2007is 1, 130 terawatt hours (twh), representing an increase of 5.2% over the previous year. We are forecastingan increase in regional generation to 1, 573twh by 2012, representing a rise of 39.3% between 2007 andthe end of the period.
Thermal power generation in 2007 is estimated by BMI at 999twh, accounting for 88.4% of the totalelectricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2012 is 1, 372twh, implying 37.4% growth that reducesslightly the market share of thermal generation to 87.2%, thanks in part to environmental concerns thatshould be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Iran’s thermal generation in2007 is estimated at 187twh, or 18.75% of the regional total. By 2012, the country is expected to accountfor 19.37% of thermal generation.
For Iran, gas was the dominant fuel in 2006, accounting for 52.9% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 44.3% and hydro with a 2.1% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast toreach 865.6mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2012, representing 27.2% growth over the period since2007. Iran’s estimated 2007 market share of 27.33% is set to rise to 28.21% by 2012. Iran’s nucleardemand is forecast to reach 8twh by 2012, with its share of the MEA nuclear market rising to 32.65%.Iran is ranked equal third, alongside South Africa, in BMI’s newly revised Power Business Environmentrating, thanks largely to its market size and high proportion of renewables (hydro-power) use. The powersector isn’t competitive, with no appreciable progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environmentis unattractive. If South Africa can sort out its current power supply problems and make some progresstowards privatisation, then it should be able to overtake Iran during the next few quarters.
BMI is forecasting real GDP growth averaging 4.55% per annum between 2007-2012, with the 2008forecast being 5.00%. The population is expected to expand from 70.8mn to 74.1mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase significantly (by 135% and18%, respectively). The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 170twhin 2007 to 209twh by the end of the forecast period, providing export potential rising from an estimated36twh in 2007 to 89twh in 2012, assuming 7.1% annual growth in generating capacity. Losses duringpower transmission and distribution mean that the actual level of Iranian power exports is well below thetheoretical surplus, but is set to rise.
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