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In this report, BMI forecasts that Qatar will account for 1.79% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regionalpower generation by 2013, having a broadly balanced market throughout the period. BMI’s MiddleEast/Africa power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,200 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increaseof 6.1% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,566TWh by2013, representing a rise of 30.5% between 2008 and the end of the period.
MEA thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 1,135TWh, accounting for 94.6% of thetotal electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,460TWh, implying 38.3% growth thatreduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 93.2% - thanks in part to environmentalconcerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Qatar’s thermalgeneration in 2008 was 19.7TWh, or 1.74% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected toaccount for 19%1 of thermal generation.
For Qatar, gas was the dominant fuel in 2008, accounting for 79.4% of primary energy demand (PED),followed by oil at 20.6%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 871.0mn tonnes of oil equivalent(toe) by 2013, representing 18.5% growth over the period since 2008. Qatar’s estimated 2008 marketshare of 3.06% is set to rise to 3.08% by 2013.Qatar is now ranked third behind Egypt in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment rating, thankslargely to its market size, low level of energy import dependency and a particularly low proportion ofrenewables use. The power sector is competitive, with good progress towards privatisation. Theregulatory environment remains relatively unattractive. Qatar has the longer-term potential to challengeEgypt for second place.
BMI is now forecasting real GDP growth averaging 8.08% per annum between 2008-2013, with the 2009estimate being 6.70%. The population is expected to expand from 1.45mn to 1.86mn over the period, withGDP per capita is forecast to decline by almost 9%, but electricity consumption per capita is expected toincrease by 15% to 2013. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated18.0TWh in 2008 to 26.6TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a reasonably balanced marketthat may require occasional import top-ups to meet peak demand - assuming 8.1% annual growth inelectricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Qatari electricity generation of 115.3%, whichis the highest in the range for the MEA region. This equates to 51.7% in the 2013-2018 period, up from41.9% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to increase from 19.1% in 2008-2013 to 22.0%, representing45.3% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 115.3% between2008 and 2018. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found towards the end ofthis report.
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