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The new Egypt Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 9.7% of MiddleEast/Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2013, with a modest theoretical generation surplus.BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,178 terawatt hours (twh), representing an increaseof 5.5% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,523twh by2013, representing a rise of 29.3% between 2008 and the end of the period.
Thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 1,100twh, accounting for 93.4% of the totalelectricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,414twh, implying 35.7% growth that reducesslightly the market share of thermal generation to 92.8% - thanks in part to environmental concernspromoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Egypt’s thermal generation in 2008 wasan estimated 110twh, or 10.0% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 9.1%of thermal generation.
For Egypt, oil was in 2007 the dominant fuel, accounting for 48.4% of primary energy demand (PED),followed by gas at 45.6% and hydro with a 4.6% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast toreach 853mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 19.6% growth over the period since2008. Egypt’s estimated 2008 market share of 9.3% is set to rise to 9.7% by 2013. The country’sestimated 14.9twh of hydro generation in 2008 is forecast to reach 18.7twh by 2013, with its share of theMEA hydro market falling from 34.6% to 32.4% over the period.
Egypt is once again ranked second, having been overtaken by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), in BMI’supdated Power Business Environment rating, reflecting its market size and high proportion of renewables(hydropower) use. While the regulatory environment is not particularly attractive, the power sector ismodestly competitive, with some progress towards privatisation. Egypt is just one point behind the UAEand can be expected to mount a fresh challenge for regional leadership during the next few quarters.
BMI is forecasting real GDP growth averaging 4.2% per annum between 2008 and 2013, with the 2009forecast being 1.8%. Population is expected to expand from 76.3mn to 82.8mn over the period, with GDPper capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 78% and 9%, respectively. Thecountry’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 108twh in 2008 to 128twh by theend of the forecast period, while theoretical surplus capacity is forecast to be 20twh in 2013, assuming3.7% annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2007 and 2018 we are forecasting an increase in Egyptian electricity generation of 58.4%, whichis towards the lower end of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 27.6% in the 2013-2018 period,up from 18.2% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to decrease from 25.9% in 2008-2013 to 19.3%,representing 56.9% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 69.5% in hydropower use during 2007-2018 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 56.9%between 2007 and 2018. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found in theAppendix of this report.
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