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BMI forecasts that the Romania will account for 3.24% of Central Eastern Europe (CEE) regional powergeneration by 2013, and remain a net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states. In 2008, CEE powergeneration was an estimated 2,111 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 2.9% on theprevious year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 2,461twh by 2013, representing anincrease of 16.6%.
CEE thermal power generation in 2008 was an estimated 1,323twh, accounting for 62.7% of the totalelectricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 stands at 1,474twh, implying 11.4% growth thatwill reduce thermal generation’s market share only slightly to 59.9%. This reduction will occur despite apromotion of renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation due to environmental concerns.Romania’s thermal generation in 2008 was an estimated 37.7TWh, or 2.85% of the regional total. By2013, the country is expected to account for 3.06% of regional thermal generation.
Gas is the dominant fuel source in Romania, accounting for 37.1% of primary energy demand (PED) in2007. Gas is followed by oil at 27.2%, coal at 22.7%, with hydro, which holds a 9.1% share of PED.Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,630mn toe by 2013, representing 16.4% growth over theperiod. Romania’s estimated 2008 market share of 2.94% is set to rise to 3.13% by 2013. In 2008Romania accounted for an estimated 2.24% of regional nuclear energy consumption, with a forecastmarket share of 2.44% by 2013.
Romania has risen to first place in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment rating, overtaking closerival Poland. The score reflects a relatively low level of import dependence, a high proportion ofrenewable energy, growing PED and an established competitive landscape. Over the medium-term,Kazakhstan also has the potential to challenge Romania and Poland at the top of the ladder.
BMI now forecasts Romanian real GDP growth averaging 3.90% per annum between 2008 and 2013,although the 2009 estimate is 1.70%. The population is expected to contract from 21.4mn to 21.3mn overthe period, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase by 87% and15% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 55.8TWhin 2008 to 63.7TWh by the end of the forecast period, while export potential should rise from anestimated 7.2TWh in 2008 to a forecast 16.2TWh in 2013, assuming 4.7% annual growth in generation.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Romanian electricity generation of 58.1%,which is towards the upper end of the range for the CEE region. This equates to 19.9% in the 2013-2018period, down from 26.8% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to fall from 24.0% in 2008-2013 to 18.8% in2013-2018, representing 52.8% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 86% in hydro-power useduring 2007-2018 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by49.0% between 2007 and 2018. More detail of BMI’s long-term forecasts can be found in the appendix ofthis report.
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